Thursday, February 28, 2008


Sorry Hillary fans but Sen. Clinton would have to not only win Ohio and Texas on March 4th (which is in doubt), but she'd have to win by sizable margins.

While a victory for her on Tuesday is not impossible, it is improbable. The likelihood that she will win those large states by 20 percentage points is, well, unlikely.

Even if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island (which is her best shot at this point), losing Texas, or even winning by a slim margin will not help her. In terms of the delegate count and the proportional allocation rules of the Democratic Party it is almost inevitable that Obama will clinch the nomination.

He's likely to win Vermont, he's in a dead heat in Texas, and in my home state of Ohio he is catching ground.

The only hope (that's right! - hope!) for the Hillary fans is that the polls are all wrong. The second hope is that Obama chooses her as V.P. Yet, that is unlikely since she likely refuses to be second fiddle. Still, for the sake of the party (and basically ensuring a Democratic victory in November) Howard Dean should urge Obama and Hillary to consider that option.

Still, my prediction holds and now we will truly see if White support for Obama continues throughout November or if it will wane as history predicts.

As for V.P., it will likely be a White Male Foreign Policy expert on Obama's side. While Gov. Richardson would be a good choice, there is only so much diversity America can take. The same goes for choosing a woman other than Hillary (e.g., the governor of Kansas).


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